• The US Government reopened after 43 days, with the timeline of data releases still unknown and looming uncertainty around October’s jobs report and CPI. 
  • The Japanese yen hits nine-month lows due to Prime Minister Takaichi’s preference for lower interest rates. 
  • Australian dollar remains strong on resilient labor data, while the British pound declined to seven-month lows due to weak UK growth and fiscal concerns. 

As the trading week wraps up, markets encountered some major developments across global economies, as governments, central banks, and key data releases shaped sentiment and currency moves worldwide. 

US Government Reopens 

President Trump signed a bill to reopen the federal government and end the longest shutdown in US history. The House passed the bill Wednesday night by a vote of 222-209. Trump signed it in the Oval Office with Republican leaders present. ⁽¹⁾  

The shutdown began on October 1, with Democrats blocking the passage of a funding bill until last Sunday. A bloc of Senate Democrats then agreed to support a new funding measure, even though it did not include an extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits (which provides essential health-insurance subsidies that help millions afford coverage). ⁽²⁾   

The Senate passed the bill with seven Democrats and one independent joining the Republicans to reach 60 votes. Under the deal, Republicans will allow a vote next month on extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits, which expire at the end of December. 

Normal operations may take days to restore, with a new data calendar expected next week. Analysts see November NFP likely delayed by at least a week, pushing it close to the next Fed meeting. 

The US dollar remained under pressure despite the end of the shutdown. FX markets shifted their focus to the wave of delayed economic data expected to be released in the coming days. However, the White House announced that labor market data and CPI for October may never be released. Economists fear the missing data could point to weaker economic conditions, softer jobs, and sticky inflation. ⁽³⁾  

Markets have reduced expectations of a December rate cut from the Fed from 67% to 49%. ⁽⁴⁾ 

DXY 4H Chart / Source: TradingView 

Gold extended its strong rally this week as the US government reopened. Government agencies still face a major backlog, especially in economic data that hasn’t been gathered during the shutdown. ⁽⁵⁾ 

Gold 4H Chart / Source: TradingView 

Japanese Yen Hits Nine-Month Lows 

The Japanese yen reached nine-month lows after Japan’s Prime Minister expressed her preference for interest rates to stay low and asked for close coordination with the Bank of Japan. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank aims for moderate inflation with wage growth and steady expansion. 

USD/JPY 4H Chart / Source: TradingView 

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned against rapid yen weakness near 155 in USD/JPY.  A weak yen could force a rate hike from the BOJ, as traders priced in a 24% chance of a 25-basis point rate hike in December. ⁽⁶⁾  

Australian Dollar Rises on Strong Jobs Data 

The Australian dollar appears on track to finish the week higher after October’s labor market showed the employment change rising by 42,000, more than double the forecasts. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate came in at 4.3%, below the previous report of 4.5%. ⁽⁷⁾  

AUD/USD 4H Chart / Source: TradingView 

The data pointed to a resilient labor market, leading to reduced expectations of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Odds of a rate cut in May 2026 dropped to 32% from nearly 70%.  

The Reserve Bank of Australia sees policy as mildly restrictive and will likely hold steady. The report signals firm demand, better sentiment, and recovery in the housing market. ⁽⁸⁾  

UK Slump Continues Before Autumn Budget 

The UK economy only grew 0.1% in Q3, below the forecast of 0.2%. The monthly figure showed a contraction of 0.1%, putting more pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates. The data comes before the Autumn Budget on November 26. 

The Bank of England kept rates unchanged last week, with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and the central bank’s monetary policy committee waiting to see another batch of fresh data on inflation and the labor market before deciding. Markets are pricing in an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. ⁽⁹⁾ 

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have abandoned plans to raise income tax rates, changing course just weeks before the release of the government’s budget. The idea was scrapped following concerns that the move would anger voters and deepen tensions with discontented Labour lawmakers. ⁽¹⁰⁾ 

The British pound fell to seven-month lows due to weak growth data and fiscal concerns. 

GBP/USD 4H Chart / Source: TradingView 

What to Watch Next Week 

  • Possible US Economic Data Releases 
  • Canadian CPI 
  • UK CPI 
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes 
  • Eurozone CPI 
  • UK Retail Sales  
  • Global PMI Data 
  • Nvidia Earnings 
  • Walmart Earnings 
 Sources: ⁽¹⁾ ⁽²⁾ ⁽³⁾ CNBC, ⁽⁴⁾ ⁽⁵⁾ ⁽⁷⁾ ⁽⁸⁾ Trading Economics, ⁽⁶⁾ ⁽⁹⁾ ⁽¹⁰⁾ Reuters