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- Gold and Silver jumped to new record highs following renewed concerns over central bank independence, coming after a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell.
- Gold and silver were kept supported not just by political uncertainty, but also by strong ETF inflows, Fed rate cuts, geopolitics and economic uncertainty.
- Oil rebounded after last week’s drop on renewed tensions in Iran, bringing back fears of potential supply disruptions.
The week opened under a cloud of political and geopolitical uncertainty in the US, setting the tone for sharp moves across commodity markets.
Heightened scrutiny of the US Fed has brought back concerns over central bank independence, causing precious metals to rise to new record highs considering their safe-haven appeal.
Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East have also revived concerns about possible supply disruptions, causing oil prices to rise.
Together, these forces are driving big moves across precious metals and energy.
What’s Happening Right Now?
Gold hit $4,620 per ounce on Monday, a new all-time high, climbing 2% in a single day. Silver wasn’t far behind, jumping to $85 per ounce with an impressive 5.2% gain.
Gold 4H Chart / Source: TradingView
Silver 4H Chart / Source: TradingView
Why the sudden surge? It all comes down to uncertainty. When investors get nervous about politics or global stability, they rush to precious metals as a safe place to park their money. And right now, traders believe there is plenty to be nervous about.
The Fed Drama Everyone’s Talking About
Here’s what sparked the rally. US prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve’s Chair, Jerome Powell. The probe focuses on his testimony last summer about a Fed building renovation project, not exactly the stuff of thriller novels, but the implications are serious.
Powell himself called the investigation “unprecedented” in a recorded message. He suggested it’s part of broader pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates faster.
President Trump has been vocal about wanting lower rates, arguing that high rates make it harder for the government to manage its debt payments.
The subpoenas served to the Fed have raised concerns about something fundamental. Central bank independence. Markets don’t like it when politics and monetary policy get too cozy. That uncertainty is one reason investors are flocking to gold and silver.
Adding to the pressure, markets are now expecting two rate cuts from the Fed this year, especially after Friday’s jobs report showed employment growth came in weaker than expected.
Trouble in the Iran Adds Fuel to the Fire
It’s not just Fed drama moving markets. Nationwide protests have erupted in Iran, and President Trump has warned that he’ll consider military action if protesters are harmed. That’s put oil traders on high alert. ⁽¹⁾
Iran isn’t a small player in the oil market. It exports around 2 million barrels per day and rank as the fourth largest producer in OPEC. Any military intervention could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. ⁽²⁾
Oil prices have bounced back as a result, with traders pricing in the risk of supply disruptions.
Brent Oil 4H Chart / Source: TradingView
Why Gold Keeps Breaking Records
This latest spike builds on an already strong performance in 2025 for gold. The metal has been climbing thanks to a perfect storm of factors: Fed rate cuts, central banks around the world buying gold for their reserves, and strong demand from investment funds. ⁽³⁾
Increasingly, investors see gold as an alternative to traditional currencies like the dollar and euro. With public debt rising and questions swirling about central bank independence, that appeal is only growing stronger. ⁽⁴⁾
Silver’s Supply Story Gets Interesting
Silver has its own dynamics at play. London vaults saw silver holdings increase by almost 28,000 tons by the end of December. At the same time, Chinese inventories dropped to their lowest levels in nearly a decade after China exported a record 660 tons in October. ⁽⁵⁾
These shifts have helped ease some supply concerns, but they’ve also raised questions about where all that silver is going and whether there’s enough liquidity in global markets. ⁽⁶⁾
Oil Gets a Boost from Geopolitical Tensions
Beyond the Iran situation, there’s another oil story developing: Venezuela.
President Trump has indicated that Venezuela could soon resume oil exports to the US, potentially releasing up to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned crude. ⁽⁷⁾
US oil companies are already arranging tanker shipments, with the first vessel possibly loading as early as next week. This comes after the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month. Trump met with top oil executives on Friday to discuss a long-term plan that could raise $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela’s struggling oil sector. ⁽⁸⁾
