Attention this week turns to US services activity, FOMC minutes, the RBNZ rate decision, and earnings from PepsiCo and Delta, offering fresh clues on growth, inflation, central bank policy and consumer behavior.

Here’s everything for you to watch closely in the trading week ahead.

Calendar Events      

  • US ISM Services PMI – Jul. 6
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision – Jul. 8
  • US FOMC Meeting Minutes – Jul. 8
  • China CPI – Jul. 9
  • Canada Unemployment Rate – Jul. 10

Top Things to Watch   

1. FOMC Minutes for the June Meeting

The FOMC minutes, due on Wednesday, cover Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair on June 17, and traders will be reading closely for what the statement left out. The vote itself was quiet, with a unanimous 12-0 decision to hold rates at 3.75%.

However, the dot plot turned hawkish, with nine of 18 officials now projecting at least one rate hike this year, while the median 2026 rate forecast climbed to 3.8% from 3.4% in March.

Warsh did not submit a projection to the dot plot, a first for a sitting Fed Chair, and removed forward guidance from the statement entirely. His argument was that markets respond better to incoming data than to forecasts about how the Fed might react to it.

That’s why these minutes matter more than usual. A unanimous hold is the quietest outcome the Fed can deliver on paper, but the internal debate, how contested the hawkish dot shift was and how the committee responded to losing forward guidance, is where the real signal sits.

2. US ISM Services PMI

Monday’s ISM services PMI for June will show whether the sector’s hot streak from May carries through or starts to cool. May’s figure came in at 54.5, the 23rd straight month of expansion.

The sector is not only stable, but gaining momentum. Over the past year, activity has mostly expanded at a steady pace in the low-to-mid 50s, so May’s jump looked like a real improvement rather than a one-off move.

3. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday brings the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest Official Cash Rate decision, with rates holding at 2.25% for three straight meetings. Inflation is running at 3.1%, already above the top of the 1-3% target band, while the unemployment rate sits at an 11-year high of 5.4% and 2025 GDP growth was just 0.2%.

Governor Anna Breman has signaled that higher rates may still be needed this year to contain inflation, especially as Middle East-driven oil prices feed into fuel and transport costs. The RBNZ expects inflation to peak near 4.3% in Q3 before easing back toward target in 2027.

Markets still lean toward a hold in July, but hike odds have been rising as banks like ANZ pull forward their calls. Any hawkish shift could trigger a sharp NZD move even without a rate change.

4. PepsiCo and Delta Earnings

Two bellwether stocks will report earnings this week, offering an early read on the consumer and the summer travel season.

PepsiCo will release its Q2 results on Thursday before the opening bell. Analysts expect EPS of $2.23, up 3.3% from $2.12 a year ago, with revenue expected to come in at $24 billion.

The company beat expectations last quarter, and its guidance has remained intact heading into the print, with cost management and pricing strategy in focus.

Delta Air Lines follows on Friday, also before the open. Wall Street expects EPS of $1.43, a 31.9% drop from $2.10 in the same quarter last year, largely due to higher fuel costs, while revenue is expected to come in at $17.43 billion.

Still, Delta has topped EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, and shares are up 47% over the past three months heading into the report, with premium ticket growth and loyalty revenue the key watch points rather than short-term fuel headwinds.