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- Employers made slightly more hires and laid off fewer workers, even as they posted fewer vacancies.
- Falling consumer confidence adds pressure ahead of Friday’s jobs report, which could shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
American employers had fewer jobs to fill in August, but they continued to hold on to their workers.
The contrast is becoming a defining feature of the US labor market: finding a new job may be getting harder, even as people already employed face little immediate risk of losing theirs.
Job openings came in at 7.079 million, down 256,000 from August. The data also came in below the 7.23 million forecast, with July’s figure revised higher to 7.33 million from an initial estimate of 7.271 million. The share of available jobs fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. ⁽¹⁾
Where Demand for Workers is Cooling
Job openings fell by 119,000 in professional and business services and by 115,000 in health care and social assistance. ⁽²⁾
Accommodation and food services added 60,000 openings, while retail trade added 54,000. These figures show how demand varied across industries, although the Bureau of Labor Statistics described the changes in openings within individual industries as small. ⁽³⁾
An open position signals that an employer wants to hire. A decline in openings can therefore suggest less competition for workers and fewer choices for job seekers. It does not, by itself, mean companies are cutting staff. August’s figures make that distinction clear.
Why Fewer Openings Have Not Led to More Layoffs
Employers hired 5.19 million people in August, slightly more than in July. Layoffs fell to 1.64 million, while the number of workers who quit their jobs was little changed at 3.07 million. ⁽⁴⁾
Taken together, those figures point to a labor market with less movement, rather than one marked by widespread job losses. Employers are still hiring, but the modest rise in hires offers little sign of a rush to expand. Workers, for their part, are leaving jobs at about the same rate as in July.
The broader jobs picture has improved after a weak summer. US payrolls grew by 162,000 in August, the strongest monthly gain in five months. Economists expect slower growth of 84,000 jobs in September. Friday’s employment report will show whether that improvement continued. ⁽⁵⁾
Consumers See a Weaker Job Market Ahead
The steady picture from August’s jobs data sits alongside a more worried view from households in September. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest level since 2014. ⁽⁶⁾
Consumers reported weaker views of current business and job conditions and expected both to worsen over the next six months. The survey covered September 1–23, so it offers a more recent reading of sentiment than the August job openings report. ⁽⁷⁾
Higher fuel costs were among the concerns consumers raised. That matters for the Federal Reserve, which raised its Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points this month to a range of 3.75%–4.00% as it works to bring down inflation.
Low layoffs give the Fed room to focus on prices, but weaker job openings and falling confidence make the next employment figures especially important.
New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday that there is no urgency to raise rates again after this month’s increase. Investors have since reduced their expectations for an October hike. ⁽⁸⁾
The next test comes from today’s ADP employment and PCE inflation reports, followed by Friday’s official jobs report. Together, they will give the Fed a clearer view of whether the job market is cooling while inflation remains high.
