Big Tech is spending heavily, governments have little room to spare, and inflation is keeping rate hikes in play.

Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report this week, Britain unveils its Budget, and France returns to crucial parliamentary votes.

Five central banks also decide on rates, with markets backing increases in Canada and New Zealand while expecting the Fed, ECB and BoJ to wait.

Calendar Events

  • Australia CPI – Oct. 28
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision – Oct. 28
  • UK Autumn Budget – Oct. 28
  • Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision – Oct. 28
  • Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – Oct. 28
  • US Q3 Advance GDP – Oct. 29
  • US PCE Index – Oct. 29
  • European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision – Oct. 29
  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision – Oct. 30
  • Eurozone Flash Q3 GDP – Oct. 30  

Top Things to Watch

1. Global Central Bank Meetings

Five central banks face the same oil shock this week, but their responses could look quite different. Wednesday expected RBNZ hike from 2.75% to 3.00%, while markets favor a Bank of Canada increase from 2.25% to 2.50% despite divided economists. The Fed is widely expected to hold at 3.75%–4.00%.

The ECB is expected to hold at 2.50% on Thursday, followed by the BoJ at 1.25% on Friday. Economists favor December for their next hikes. Japan’s updated inflation forecasts will offer more detail on how policymakers assess persistent price pressures.

2. Oil Pulls Back as Qatar Steps In

Brent retreated towards $114 a barrel in early Monday trading, while WTI hovered near $101, as Qatari mediation revived hopes of easing US-Iran tensions. The decline follows Brent’s 6% rally last week as attacks in Saudi Arabia fuelled supply fears.

Diplomacy has yet to stop the attacks. The Houthis claimed fresh strikes on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pumping stations on Monday, without immediate Saudi confirmation. This week’s key test is whether mediation can reduce threats to the infrastructure and shipping routes carrying the region’s oil.

3. Tech, Staples, Industrials, & Energy Earnings

AI spending concerns have rattled tech stocks ahead of Microsoft and Alphabet’s results after Wednesday’s US close, followed by Amazon on Thursday. Investors want evidence that profits can catch up with investment. Alphabet’s capital spending exceeded operating cash flow last quarter, while Amazon recorded a $7.6 billion free cash outflow over 12 months.

Coca-Cola and Boeing report before Tuesday’s open, covering consumer demand and Boeing’s cash recovery. Intel follows after Thursday’s close, then Exxon Mobil and Chevron before Friday’s open. Exxon has flagged stronger refining earnings, partly offset by lower crude prices compared with Q2.

4. UK Autumn Budget

UK Chancellor John Healey presents his first Budget on Wednesday with April-to-September borrowing £6 billion above forecast. Higher borrowing costs are estimated to have roughly halved March’s £23.6 billion fiscal buffer, limiting room for household relief.

Banks could face higher taxes to help fund that support, while a capital gains tax rate increase has reportedly been ruled out. The OBR’s forecasts will show how the plans are funded and how much fiscal room remains.

5. France’s Social Security Budget Vote

France’s social security budget faces a vote on Tuesday, October 27. State budget debates also resume, with a vote on the revenue section scheduled for November 3.

With French 10-year borrowing costs above 5%, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government faces a difficult bargain: win parliamentary support without weakening deficit cuts. The uncertainty adds another complication ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision.