After a week dominated by central bank decisions, attention now shifts to the wider forces shaping the global economy.

The Trump–Xi summit brings US–China trade and technology tensions back into focus, while developments in the Middle East continue to disrupt energy supplies and major shipping routes.

Meanwhile, fresh business activity and employment data offer an updated view of economic conditions across major markets.

Calendar Events

  • Eurozone Flash PMI – Sep. 23
  • UK Flash PMI – Sep. 23
  • US Flash PMI – Sep. 23
  • Australia Unemployment Rate – Sep. 24
  • Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision – Sep. 24

Top Things to Watch

1. Trump–Xi Summit

Washington will host the second Trump–Xi summit of the year on Thursday, following the two leaders’ meeting in Beijing in May.

Artificial intelligence is already confirmed on the agenda, alongside a broader relationship shaped by trade, tariffs, technology restrictions, critical minerals, Taiwan and China’s ties with Iran.

2. Middle East Developments

Energy and shipping routes remain affected by the conflict in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline temporarily stopped operating after three pumping stations were damaged. Before the disruption, the pipeline was carrying 4–5 million barrels per day, equivalent to around 4%–5% of global oil supply.

Saudi Arabia has also increased shipments through the Gulf and arranged transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz to maintain deliveries. Around 60 million barrels have been sold for loading in September and October.

3. September PMIs

August provided a strong picture for the next round of flash PMI releases. The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI Output Index rose to a 27-month high of 53.5, while the S&P Global US Composite PMI reached a 52-month high of 56.0.

The next releases are due on Wednesday. In August, eurozone factory output grew at its fastest pace in 54 months, while UK private-sector activity expanded at its quickest rate since April, supported by stronger services activity.

Cost pressures remained elevated but showed signs of easing in several surveys. Higher energy and transport costs, together with supply delays, continued to affect businesses across major economies.

4. Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision

The Swiss National Bank enters Thursday’s meeting with its policy rate at 0%, where it has remained since the June decision.

Annual inflation rose from 0.4% in July to 0.8% in August but remained within the SNB’s definition of price stability. Alongside its decision, the central bank will publish an updated conditional inflation forecast and its latest assessment of the Swiss economy and on the Swiss franc.

5. Australia’s Labor Market Data

Thursday’s labor report will update Australia’s employment and unemployment figures after a mixed set of results in July.

Australia lost 15,800 jobs overall in July. The economy added 16,300 full-time jobs but lost 32,200 part-time jobs. Because more part-time jobs were lost than full-time jobs were added, total employment declined.

The unemployment rate edged up from 4.4% to 4.5%, while workforce participation slipped to 66.9%. The report will be released five days before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September 29 policy meeting.