September opens with the US labor market firmly in control of the market narrative. After July’s surprise decline in payrolls, JOLTS, ADP and Friday’s employment report will test whether that weakness was temporary or the beginning of a broader slowdown.

Central banks face different challenges. The RBNZ is considering another rate hike as inflation remains elevated, while the Bank of Canada is widely expected to extend its long run of unchanged decisions.

Eurozone inflation, Australian GDP and US ISM PMIs add to a packed calendar. Meanwhile, renewed US–Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher, adding another potential source of volatility across currencies, commodities and equities. Here’s what to watch.

Calendar Events

  • Eurozone Flash CPI – Sep. 1
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Sep. 1
  • US JOLTS Job Openings – Sep. 1
  • Australia Quarterly GDP – Sep. 2
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision – Sep. 2
  • US ADP Employment Change – Sep. 2
  • Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision – Sep. 2
  • US ISM Services PMI – Sep. 3
  • Canada Unemployment Rate – Sep. 4
  • US Non-Farm Payrolls – Sep. 4
  • US Unemployment Rate – Sep. 4
  • US Average Hourly Earnings – Sep. 4

Top Things to Watch

1. Oil Climbs as US–Iran Tensions Escalate

Oil prices rose more than 2% after US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting retaliation from Iran. Brent moved above $90 a barrel.

The renewed fighting raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil shipments through the strait. Markets will be watching regional developments, tanker activity and diplomatic efforts for their possible impact on crude prices.

2. High Impact US Economic Data

The US labor market takes center stage this week, with ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP payrolls on Wednesday, ISM Services on Thursday and Friday’s crucial NFP, unemployment and wage data.

July’s NFP fell by 23,000, while June’s gain was revised down to just 20,000. With no Fed forward guidance, another weak report would strengthen the case for a hold on September 16, while a rebound could quickly revive hike expectations.

3. Euro Area Flash CPI

Eurozone inflation returns to the spotlight on Tuesday, just days before the ECB’s September 10 decision. Annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July from 2.8%, while core inflation increased to 2.5% from 2.4%.

August’s report will reveal whether inflationary pressure is building again or July’s rise was temporary. With inflation still above the ECB’s 2% target, the figures could shape expectations ahead of the decision.

4. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

The RBNZ faces another important rate decision on Wednesday after unanimously raising rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% in July and signaling that further increases were likely. 

With annual inflation at 4.1%, Westpac expects another 25-basis-point hike to 2.75% and rates to reach 3% by year-end. The bigger market question is how quickly the RBNZ intends to tighten and what that means for October. 

5. Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

The BoC is widely expected to keep rates at 2.25% on Wednesday, extending its pause to seven consecutive meetings. The economy has shown signs of improvement, but US trade uncertainty and volatile energy prices continue to cloud the outlook.

The BoC expects growth of 0.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028. Markets will focus on whether policymakers still view the current rate as appropriate or open the door to an adjustment later this year.

6. Australia GDP

Australia’s second-quarter GDP report lands on Wednesday after growth slowed to just 0.3% in the first quarter, weighed down by weak consumption and weather-related disruptions to mining and exports.

The figures will test the economy’s resilience after the RBA held rates at 4.35% in August following 75 basis points of tightening this year. With the central bank still alert to inflation risks, a stronger report could reinforce the case for further action.