Markets will be looking for answers on three fronts this week: interest rates, consumer strength and economic momentum. 

The Fed’s July meeting minutes will shed more light on its growing policy divide, while major retail earnings will test the resilience of US spending. UK inflation and employment figures will put the BoE’s next move under scrutiny, before global PMIs provide the latest performance on growth. 

Here’s what to watch. 

Calendar Events

  • Canada CPI – Aug. 17
  • UK Claimant Count Change – Aug. 18
  • UK Unemployment Rate – Aug. 18
  • UK CPI – Aug. 19
  • Eurozone Final CPI for July – Aug. 19
  • US FOMC Meeting Minutes – Aug. 19
  • Australia Unemployment Rate – Aug. 20
  • UK Retail Sales – Aug. 21
  • Eurozone Flash PMI – Aug. 21
  • UK Flash PMI – Aug. 21
  • US Flash PMI – Aug. 21

Top Things to Watch

1. FOMC July’s Meeting Minutes

The minutes from the Fed’s July 28–29 meeting arrive on Wednesday and will be read against a very different economic backdrop. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but three officials dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, revealing a widening disagreement over the next policy move.

Since then, July payrolls have fallen by 23,000, previous months have been revised down by 103,000, and annual wage growth has slowed to 3.2%. Meanwhile, July inflation eased to 3.4%, prompting traders to scale back expectations for a September hike.

The key question is no longer simply why three officials dissented. Markets will want to know how widely their inflation concerns were shared, whether policymakers had already identified cracks in the labor market and what conditions could still trigger a September move.

2. Retail Earnings From Home Depot, Target, and Walmart

Retail earnings take center stage next week, with Home Depot, Target and Walmart offering a broad snapshot of US consumer spending.

Home Depot reports on Tuesday, with EPS expected at $4.71, up slightly from $4.68 a year earlier. Investors will focus on whether comparable sales improved from Q1’s modest 0.6% gain as housing pressure continues to weigh on larger projects.

Target follows on Wednesday after Q1 comparable sales rose 5.6%. The key question is whether that momentum continued without renewed pressure on margins.

Walmart reports on Thursday, guiding for adjusted EPS of 0.74 and sales growth of 4%–5% in constant currency. E-commerce, advertising and spending among lower-income consumers will remain in focus.

Together, the reports should show whether consumer spending remains resilient or is shifting further towards essentials, value and smaller purchases.

3. UK Labor Market and CPI Data

UK labor-market data arrives on Tuesday, followed by July CPI on Wednesday. Headline inflation eased to 2.6% in June from 2.8%, its lowest since December 2024, as transport and food prices cooled.

The BoE expects this relief to be temporary, forecasting inflation to peak near 3.2% in Q4 as higher energy costs feed through the economy.

The UK labor market remains fragile. The number of payrolled employees fell by 90,000 YoY in May, vacancies declined to 712,000 between April and June, and the youth unemployment rate reached 16.4%, its highest in 11 years. Private-sector wages have also fallen in real terms since October 2025.

The releases will show whether weaker employment and wage pressures can offset rising energy costs.

4. Global Flash PMI Data

August flash PMIs for the eurozone, UK and US are due on Friday, following a broad improvement in July.

Final July PMI data showed the US Composite PMI rising to 54.5, while the eurozone reading reached 52.0 and the UK returned to growth at 52.2.

Eurozone manufacturing output expanded at its fastest pace since March 2022, although the US and UK improvements were partly supported by temporary spending linked to the World Cup, US Independence Day events, favorable UK weather and domestic holidays.

August’s surveys will test whether the recovery has sustained momentum or begins to fade as tariffs, energy and other input costs place renewed pressure on demand.