It’s a big week for markets. US CPI and PPI data will show whether June’s cooler inflation trend can survive the recent jump in energy prices, a result that could shift how traders see the Fed’s next move.

Meanwhile, the RBA meets to decide on rates, with new forecasts likely to show whether inflation has eased enough to justify staying on hold. In the UK, Q2 GDP will tell us if recent growth momentum is holding up.

Here’s what to watch.

Calendar Events

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision – Aug. 11
  • US CPI – Aug. 12
  • New Zealand Inflation Expectations – Aug. 13
  • UK GDP – Aug. 13
  • US PPI – Aug. 13
  • US Retail Sales – Aug. 14
  • US Prelim Consumer Sentiment – Aug. 14

Top Things to Watch

Hormuz Deal Nears, but Reopening Remains Uncertain

Iran said an agreement with Oman on new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz was in its final stages. However, Tehran warned that the arrangement would only establish a framework for future passage and would not trigger an immediate reopening of the key oil and gas route.

Iran continues to demand an end to US sanctions, military threats and the naval blockade, along with compensation for war damages. Direct talks with Washington remain off the table, although messages are being exchanged through intermediaries. President Trump signaled patience, saying the US was only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran.

CPI and PPI Return with Inflation’s Direction Still Unclear

Back-to-back inflation data lands this week, with July CPI due Wednesday and PPI following Thursday. Both arrive at a pivotal moment after energy prices surged following the collapse of the ceasefire in July.

June’s CPI showed a slowdown in inflation, with headline CPI fell 0.4% for the month and eased to 3.5% annually from May’s 4.2%, while core CPI was flat month over month at 2.6% YoY.

But that improvement was largely an energy-driven mirage tied to the brief ceasefire. Gasoline prices have already reversed higher since tensions resumed and the Strait of Hormuz closures began.

PPI told a similar story, falling 0.3% in June even as the annual rate remained elevated at 5.5%.

July’s prints will show whether the energy reversal has reached the data and whether June’s “cooling” narrative can survive the renewed spike in oil prices.

RBA Set to Hold as Inflation Cools

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision on Tuesday alongside the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and updated forecasts. The cash rate sits at 4.35% after three hikes between February and May and a hold in June. All four major Aussie banks expect another hold.

Expectations shifted after June CPI came in softer than forecast, with headline inflation at 3.8% and the trimmed mean at 3.6%, both below the RBA’s projections.

Governor Michele Bullock has stressed that June’s hold was “a pause, not a pivot,” while leaving the door open to further hikes “if required,” particularly given oil-price volatility tied to the Middle East conflict.

Economists remain split. Roughly half expect at least one more hike this year, while others see the softer CPI as reason to remain on hold through year-end. Bullock’s press conference will be the key signal.

UK Q2 GDP: Can the Growth Streak Continue?

The UK’s first estimate of Q2 2026 GDP lands on Thursday, showing how the economy performed from April through June. GDP grew by 0.6% in Q1, its strongest quarterly pace since early 2025.

Momentum remained broad in the three months to May, with GDP expanding by 0.7%. Services output rose by 0.7%, construction grew by 1.6%, and production increased by 0.1%. That points to a clear improvement from Q4 2025, when GDP grew by just 0.1%.

The Q2 release will show whether that momentum survived persistent services inflation and rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. A strong print would support keeping Bank Rate at 3.75% and could strengthen the case for a hike.

A slowdown would revive calls for cuts, although inflation risks continue to limit the BoE’s room to ease. At its July meeting, the Bank held rates unchanged in a 6–3 vote, with three members supporting a hike to 4%.