This week brings fresh inflation data and earnings as markets weigh the Fed’s next move after September’s rate hike.

America’s biggest banks and major chip companies report, the IMF updates its global outlook, and oil markets weigh hopes of improved fuel supplies against ongoing shipping risks.

Calendar Events

  • BoE Governor Bailey’s Speech at the IMF – Oct. 14
  • BoC Governor Macklem’s Speech at the IMF – Oct. 14
  • ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at the IMF – Oct. 14
  • US CPI – Oct. 14
  • Australia Employment Change – Oct. 15
  • Australia Unemployment Rate – Oct. 15
  • UK Monthly GDP – Oct. 15
  • US PPI – Oct. 15
  • US Retail Sales – Oct. 15
  • Fed Chairman Warsh’s Speech at the IMF – Oct. 16

Top Things to Watch

1. US CPI & PPI

US consumer prices land on Wednesday, with producer prices following on Thursday. Both rose 0.4% in August, and fuel did a lot of the heavy lifting.

That puts the Fed in a tight spot. It already raised rates in September, to 3.75% – 4%. Another hot month could make the case for one more hike. A cooler reading gives officials room to sit tight.

Rate expectations move the dollar, gold and stocks, so these two numbers could set the tone for the rest of the week.

2. Big Bank Earnings

Earnings season starts on Tuesday with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on Wednesday, all before the opening bell.

After strong Q2 results, attention turns to funding costs, credit quality and dealmaking. Bank of America expects investment banking fees to fall at least 10%, while JP Morgan expects growth.

The key question is whether executives still see lending and deal activity holding up as yields rise.

3. IMF Meeting

The IMF and World Bank meet from October 12 to 18. Tuesday brings fresh growth forecasts and the Global Financial Stability Report, a health check on the financial system.

Back in July, the IMF expected a recovery next year. The question now is whether high energy prices and borrowing costs have knocked that off course.

Central bankers take the stage too. Bailey, Lagarde and Macklem speak on Wednesday, and Fed Chair Warsh closes the week on Friday, right after the US inflation data.

4. Oil Retreats on Energy Truce Hopes

Oil fell in early Asian trading today, with Brent near $103 a barrel and WTI around $90. Trump’s announcement of a Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire, alongside planned Russian diesel supplies, raised hopes of easing fuel shortages.

However, Kyiv was still awaiting details and Moscow had not confirmed the truce. US producers are preparing to restart output after Hurricane Isaias, while weekend tanker attacks near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz keep shipping risks elevated.

5. Chipmaker Earnings

The Nasdaq 100 reached a record close last week as AI optimism lifted tech stocks. ASML reports on Wednesday, having guided for quarterly sales of €11–12 billion. Its outlook will offer a read on whether chipmakers are continuing to invest in new production capacity.

TSMC follows on Thursday, with monthly sales figures pointing to record Q3 revenue of about $46.7 billion, up 50% YoY. Analysts expect net profit to rise 64%. Investors will focus margins and fourth-quarter guidance, where TSMC shows how chip demand is translating into profits, while ASML offers clues about investment in future supply.