Markets have lots to watch this week, from big tech earnings to the ECB’s rate decision and a full slate of data from the UK and global PMI surveys.

Here’s what to watch.

Calendar Events

  • Canada CPI – Jul. 20
  • New Zealand CPI – Jul. 21
  • UK Unemployment Rate – Jul. 21
  • UK CPI – Jul. 22
  • Australia Unemployment Rate – Jul. 23
  • European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision – Jul. 23
  • Eurozone Flash PMI – Jul. 24
  • UK Flash PMI – Jul. 24
  • US Flash PMI – Jul. 24

Top Things to Watch

1.Big Tech Earnings Lineup: Google, Tesla and Intel

Earnings season steps up a gear this week as Alphabet, Tesla and Intel all report.

Alphabet goes first on Wednesday after the close. Analysts expect EPS of around $2.87 on revenue of $117 billion. Q1 set a high bar, as revenue rose 22% to $109.9 billion and Google Cloud grew 63%. The key question now is whether Search can keep pace with AI Overviews without losing ad yield to chatbot competition.

Tesla reports the same day. Deliveries have already impressed at 480,126 vehicles, marking a return to YoY growth after two straight declines. Analysts expect EPS of $0.47 on $25 billion in revenue, but the bigger story is whether autonomy, Optimus and the Cybercab show real progress on the call.

Intel closes the week on Thursday. EPS is forecast at $0.21 and revenue at $14.42 billion. Q1 delivered a surprise EPS beat of $0.29 against breakeven forecasts, sending shares up over 23%. Investors will watch whether Data Center and Foundry growth, driven by the 18A chip ramp, can keep the momentum going.

2.Brent Tops $90 as US-Iran Tensions Escalate

Brent crude traded above $90 a barrel earlier today, extending gains from the prior week as tensions between the US and Iran continued to escalate, raising concerns about potential disruptions to Middle East oil supply. Iran stated that its ceasefire with the US had broken down, and reported intercepting four vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

Attacks have widened beyond military sites, hitting key infrastructure across Gulf nations. Brent is now up roughly 30% from its July lows, as the US-Iran truce collapsed, the US renewed its blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran stepped up strikes on vessels near the Strait.

3.European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

The ECB heads into Thursday’s decision fresh from its first rate hike since 2023, delivered on June 11, which lifted the deposit rate to 2.25% after Middle East-driven energy costs pushed inflation to 3.2% in May.

Since then, the picture has cooled, with eurozone inflation falling back to 2.8% in June. July isn’t a projection meeting, so Lagarde’s press conference will be the main source of guidance, and the ECB hasn’t signaled whether June’s hike was a one-off or the start of a series.

A pause looks like the likely outcome. The bigger question is whether Lagarde leaves the door open to another hike if energy prices reaccelerate, or signals a longer hold.

4.UK Jobs and Inflation Data

Headline inflation has held at 2.8% for two straight months, still above target but stabilizing. Services inflation, which the BoE watches closely, rose to 3.7% in May from 3.2% in April.

May’s jobs report was mixed, with the unemployment rate at 4.9%, payrolled employees falling for a fifth straight month, and wage growth slowing to 3.4% excluding bonuses, though still ahead of inflation in real terms.

Together, these releases shape how much room the BoE has to move next. A soft labor market argues for easing, but sticky services inflation complicates that call.

5.Global Flash PMI Data

Friday’s flash PMIs offer the earliest look at how businesses worldwide are handling tariffs, elevated rates and Middle East-driven cost pressures. The US, UK and eurozone are the ones to watch.

The US picture remains mixed. June’s flash manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9, its strongest reading since May 2022, while services barely remained above 50 at 51.3, with employment falling for two consecutive months.

The eurozone remains in contraction, though June’s flash reading of 49.5 improved from May’s 48.5, as strength in Italy, Spain, and Ireland offset weakness in Germany and France.

Input costs have eased, and business confidence has reached its highest level since the Middle East war began, offering an early sign that the region may be stabilizing.