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Q3 earnings are set to start this week, with major banks leading the way on Tuesday and Wednesday. These results will offer clarity on both corporate performance and the broader US economy’s health in the third quarter.
As the US economy continues to grapple with uncertainty, from ongoing government shutdown and tariffs to delayed economic data and other concerns, earnings from financial giants such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will serve as a critical gauge of the economy’s resilience.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the Q3 results, driven by robust consumer spending and investment banking activity, with a rebound in mergers and acquisitions. However, any economic downturn could change the tide of this upbeat outlook. ⁽¹⁾
Market Expectations for Earnings and Revenues
October 14
- JP Morgan: JP Morgan, the largest bank in the US, is expected to report EPS of $4.84, marking a 10% increase YoY, while revenue is projected at $45.25 billion, up 4.4% YoY.
The bank’s expected results are fueled by strong investment banking activity, with CEO Jamie Dimon also expressing support for easing the SEC’s quarterly reporting requirements.
- Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs is forecasted to post EPS of $11, reflecting a 30% increase YoY, with revenue expected to reach $14.13 billion, up 11% YoY. The upbeat expectations are largely driven by strong trading revenues and continued momentum in investment banking operations.
- Citigroup: Citigroup is expected to report EPS of $1.75, a 15% increase YoY, with revenue forecasted at $21 billion, representing a 3% annual gain.
Citi’s expectations are driven by resilient capital markets strength, and also its collaboration with European banks to launch a euro-based stablecoin planned for late 2026.
October 15
- Bank of America: Bank of America is expected to report EPS of $0.95, representing an 18.75% increase YoY, with revenue forecast at $27.50 billion, up 8% YoY.
Investors will be watching for updates on the bank’s share buyback plans and capital management strategy.
- Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley is projected to post EPS of $2.1, reflecting an 11% increase YoY, while revenue is expected to come in at $16.66 billion, up 8% YoY.
The bank’s performance is expected to be driven by robust capital markets activity and strong wealth management operations.
The earnings reports of the above mentioned banks will be released before the opening bell.
Overall, analysts expect strong results from US financial giants in Q3, as the sector continues to demonstrate resilience. Borrowers show minimal signs of stress, while strong equity markets have boosted management fees across Wall Street. Additionally, loan activity and eased regulations under Trump’s administration are providing support for the sector. ⁽²⁾
Rebound in Investment Banking
Investment banking activity has rebounded due to the surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and initial public offerings (IPOs), which drove revenues. Global M&A reached $2.6 trillion in 2025 so far, the highest since 2021. ⁽³⁾
The surge in M&A was mainly driven by eased regulations and anticipated rate cuts which made it easier for dealmaking, with JP Morgan describing the past summer as one of its busiest periods. Bank of America expects its investment banking fees to rise 10-15%, while Citigroup anticipates single-digit growth in fees and market revenue. ⁽⁴⁾
The Importance of Bank Earnings
Bank earnings play an important role in gauging the health of the broader economy. The performance of financial institutions directly influences credit conditions, mortgage rates, job stability, and overall market confidence.
Strong lending activity supports consumer spending and growth, while robust investment banking operations and trading revenues serve as additional indicators of the financial sector strength.
Looking Ahead
While big banks are expected to post strong earnings, risks remain on the horizon.
An economic downturn could hurt investor optimism, while delays in key economic data due to the ongoing US government shutdown could make forecasting more complicated.
Markets will closely watch bank’s forward guidance on lending activity, investment banking operations, and economic projections.
As the Q3 earnings season unfolds, the results will not only shed light on banks’ financial performance, btu also provide valuable insights into the broader US economy.
