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- OPEC+ kept production levels for Q1 2026 steady, while maintaining cuts of 3 million bpd, and preparing to launch a capacity review for 2027.
- Geopolitical risks, sanctions, and internal quota disputes continue to shape the group’s decisions as members balance oversupply fears with long-term stability.
The oil-producing alliance, OPEC+, met on Sunday and agreed to leave production levels unchanged for Q1 2026. The group is slowing down its push to recapture market dominance amid fears of oversupply.
Their meeting occurred during a recent effort from the US to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could add supply if sanctions on Russia are eased.
OPEC+ Maintains Cuts While Debating Next Steps
Eight OPEC+ members agreed to pause production increases in Q1 2026 after adding 2.9 million barrels per day to the market since April. OPEC+ still has around 3.24 million bpd in cuts, roughly 3% of global demand. These cuts were not changed in the Sunday meetings. ⁽¹⁾
The group is still discussing the 3.24 million bpd cuts, but has not confirmed anything yet. Here’s a breakdown of the existing cuts: ⁽²⁾
- A 2 million bpd cut by most members, lasting until the end of 2026.
- Another 1.24 million bpd from a 1.65 million bpd cut that eight members began returning to the market in October.
OPEC+ Starts 2026 Capacity Check, Including Sanctioned Producers
OPEC said it approved a plan to check each member’s maximum production capacity, which will be used to set 2027 output baselines. This assessment will take place from January to September 2026, so 2027 quotas can be decided on time. ⁽³⁾
One company will assess capacity for 19 of the 22 OPEC+ members. For members under sanctions, capacity will be measured separately or based on their average output from August to October 2026. Russia, Iran and Venezuela remained sanctioned under Western countries. ⁽⁴⁾
Long-Standing Capacity and Quota Issues
OPEC+ has been debating capacity and quota issues for years. Some members, like the UAE, have increased capacity and want higher quotas, while others, mainly in Africa, have lost capacity but do not want lower quotas. Angola left the group in 2024 after disagreeing with its assigned quota. ⁽⁵⁾
Geopolitics Back in Focus
Markets turned their focus to the Russia-Ukraine peace talks as Russian President Vladimir Putin met with President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner in the Kremlin on Tuesday. However, they did not reach any peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.
Putin warned European powers that Russia is ready to fight if war breaks out and threatened to cut Ukraine’s sea access after drone attacks on its shadow-fleet tankers.
The Russian leader will begin a two-day visit to India on December 4th to promote Russian oil, missile systems, and fighter jets as Moscow seeks to rebuild energy and defense ties weakened by US pressure. ⁽⁶⁾
Oversupply concerns weighing on prices have been partly offset by weekend attacks on Russian infrastructure and rising US–Venezuela tensions. Trump said Venezuelan airspace is closed, adding more uncertainty. ⁽⁷⁾
Looking Ahead
OPEC+, which pumps half of the world’s oil, remains committed to stability instead of aggression by keeping production steady, stabilizing cuts, and preparing a capacity review for 2027.
Ongoing sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and long-standing quota disputes continue to shape the group’s decisions.
